The Triumph of Numbers – Cohen (2005)

My new job involves working with numbers. A lot. So, I started reading about using numbers, and I very much enjoyed ‘The Triumph of Numbers’ by I.B. Cohen (2005). This book gives an historical account not only of how numbers were used in different times, but also of ‘how counting shaped modern life’.

The books starts out by illustrating the power of numbers. Just by using very simple calculations, Cohen quickly arrives at the conclusion that the building of the ancient pyramids involved placing one giant block of stone in the structure, every two minutes. Since the weight of such stones is enormous, this required quite advanced techniques to achieve. Knowing the vast size of such an operation, this helps us to gain an understanding in how the Egyptians may have done it, and the level of technology available to them.

For long, people have been fascinated by numbers. Cohen’s description of the history of using numbers therefore starts with numerology. The reader is treated with lovely exercises is numerology: it is quite amazing how we can prove about anything, simply by reordering numbers that somehow correspond to letters. If only there was an empirical basis for such magic.

Off to more serious applications of numbers (by today’s standards), Cohen locates the proper start of using numbers in Hutcheson’s Moral Arithmetic. Hutcheson used formulae (and which are based on numbers) to make his claims about morality. Here, numbers were only used to illustrate a claim, but not much later people started to relate such numbers to observable phenomena. An example of this Benjamin Franklin, who used his mathematical genius to find arguments based on numbers for his political claims regarding the safety of inoculation against smallpox. He used numbers to show it was safe to have your children inoculated.
… Continue Reading

What I Learned

Last Tuesday, I posted the preface of my Master’s Thesis on my blog. In an earlier draft, I wrote some thoughts about what I learned during my education in Sociology. In the end, I decided to delete that passage, but I saved it for publication on my blog.

So, below some thougths on what I learned about sociology:

[My] thesis completes my research master Social and Cultural Sciences, which I started upon my obtaining a Bachelor’s degree in sociology. In many ways, this thesis forms an accumulation of the lessons I learned. Three of those important lessons regard a trinity of a perspective on science, of how to theorize, and of method.

During my education, I developed a perspective on science, influenced by both Karl Popper and Thomas Kuhn. Within the rules set by a specific paradigm, I attempt to elaborate upon the core idea(s) of such paradigm by asking new questions that build on existing ones, by using theories to formulate prelimirary answers to these questions, and finally by testing these new answers against empirical evidence with as much rigor as possible.

Regarding the formulation of explanations derived from theory, I was inspired by the principle of methodological individualism. Based on this principle, I learned the importance of analyzing social phenomena that are observable at the macro level by formulating explanations at the level of the individual.

Finally, regarding the method of research, I was taught both survey methodology and a variety of statistical tools that together can provide the rigor required to test the preliminary answers that were derived from theory.

A wave of technology will change us all (TED talk)

Last week, I discussed how through technological change women gained more control over their fertility, and especially how this has had both intended, and unintended consequences. Juan Enriguez, in a fascinating , takes this point a whole lot further. Convincingly, he argues how technology will soon change what we consider human, or more specifically how technological progress will soon force us to reconsider how we think about the boundaries of our own humanity.

What’s in a name? Dennis the Dentist and Joe the Plumber

A few days ago, Andrew Gelman responded to a blog article by Ian Ayers, on the found relationship between peoples names and their profession. This relationship (amongst other similar relationship) was fund by Pelham, Mirenberg, and Jones (2002). It was found that many more dentists are called Dennis than would have been expected based on a random distribution of both first names and professions. A mini-theory on Dennis the Dentist is suggested, in which people called Dennis “gravitate toward dentistry“.

But, it this actually so special at all? Or rather: does this mini-theory hold? Gelman nicely shows that using propoer conditional probabilities, the ‘many’ dentists named Dennis, actually aren’t that numerous. Have a look for yourself on his blog: his argument is actually quite simple and elegant.

There is, I think, another reason why the mini-theory on Dennis the Dentist does not hold, and it has all to do with a man called Joe the Plumber.

… Continue Reading

Curving Normality Blog Carnival #3

Once again, it is time for a new edition of the Curving Normality Blog Carnival. Last edition was a bit short, but I’m happy to see that people still have send in their posts, even while I didn’t put out a ‘call for blogs’. Nevertheless, today I present a new edition with interesting posts on morality, war, the afterlife, and religion!

… Continue Reading

Unintended Consequences Catholicism and Abortion Attitudes

One of the elegances of sociology is found in the unintended consequences of our actions. In my studies of attitudes towards abortion, I found a nice example of such unintended consequences regarding the Catholic church. But, I doubt that the findings are warranted by the analyses.
… Continue Reading

Book: A conceptual introduction to statistics

How does one teach statistics? Is it more important to start with mathematical thoroughness, or to help students to gain a conceptual understanding first? There’s something to say about both, depending on the setting you’re in, but fact is that most books on statistics (even the introductory ones) rapidly delve into the mathematical depths of inferential statistics. Few give a comprehensive introduction to statistics for those without the otherwise indispensable mathematical background. Manfred te Grotenhuis and Theo van der Weegen recently published an introductory book on statistics called “Statistics as a Tool” (Statistiek als Hulpmiddel, in Dutch), explaining statistical concepts using words and graphs, rather than formulas.

… Continue Reading

Bad Science overestimates psychological consequences induced abortion

Can bad science lead us to draw wrong conclusions about the world we live in? “Of course it can“, we are inclined to think. And if so, can this have real-life consequences? Investigating these meta-questions is not as easy as it might seem, for it would require an exact manner to distinguish the good from the bad science, and it would require a subject that has been thoroughly investigated in both the ‘good’ and the ‘bad’ ways to compare the outcomes.

One such subject would be the vast amount of research done on the psychological consequences of undergoing an induced abortion. This heavily researched (and heavily debated!) subject focusses primarily on the questions whether or not a women has a higher chance of suffering from anxiety, feeling of guilt, depression, or (other) mental disorders caused by undergoing an induced abortion. … Continue Reading

In memoriam: Samuel Huntington

I read my first book by Samuel Huntington during the period that I decided to go studying sociology. His ‘Clash of Civilizations’ inspired me to a new way of thinking about society and civilizations, although I remember to have found it lacking in specificity. Only years later I do understand why I found it lacking at some points, but have also learned to appreciate his contribution to political science discours.
… Continue Reading

Republican Schoolmaster and the Narcissism of the Minor Differences

Now that we all know who the new President of the United States will be, people are preparing for a new type of government, with a new and markedly different agenda than the previous one. Most people are very contend with this new agenda, but some will be disappointed. How does this influence the people’s opinion, one might ask? Will conflict be the result, or can one expect that in general the new agenda will be accepted and that those who voted McCain will change their opinions to generally accept the new policy?

In their classic article, Franklin and Kosaki studied something similar, although they focused on the impact of a Supreme Court ruling regarding induced abortion. Remember though, how Obama and MaCain differed on this issue, with Obama stating to protect the Roe v. Wade Court Ruling, and McCain trying to overthrow it. It is exactly the effect on public opinion of this Roe v. Wade Court Ruling that Franklin and Kosaki studied.
… Continue Reading